Modelling Port Cycles: Stylized facts and Dynamics of Spatial and Sectoral co-movements

Abstract

By definition a business cycle is the sum of cyclical fluctuations observed in different macroeconomic activities. This reflects a salient feature of business cycles, extensively highlighted in the relevant literature known as co-­movement or synchronization; macroeconomic aggregates move within the same direction and timing. The “summation” characteristic of the co-­‐movement theory indicates that while the business cycle as a concept is related to the performance of the aggregate economy, it is the aggregation of multiple cycles of individual industries. To this end, we develop, test and analyse the results of a framework that applies the business cycle co-­‐movement theory in ports industry; an important part of the economy, subject to fluctuations, since it carries the majority of international trade.